Is Ollie Pope a fourth innings fraud?

Ollie pope gets a lot of flak for turning up at the start of matches (and series) and then shitting the bed when the going gets tough. As a committed Pope apologist (maybe it's the Ian Bell resemblance) I had to see if this was actually true, so I crunched the numbers:

https://preview.redd.it/070cv5r7ofef1.png?width=2406&format=png&auto=webp&s=57f74da9c265bc3b3406bb07353f25c3992f8e4d

The graph above shows the top (green) and bottom (red) 4 'batting factor' differentials for all players since 1970 with an average of at least 25 and who batted in at least 10 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings.

The batting factor is the ratio of each player's average in each innings and their overall average. So, for example, a batting factor of 2 for the first innings indicates that player averages twice as much in the first innings compared to their overall average. We can see from the grey line that (as expected) the average batting factor across all players drops from innings to innings, because it's harder to bat as the game goes on.

Looking at the graph we can see the answer to my question is 'yes' – Ollie pope has the fourth worst ratio of first innings/fourth innings RPI of all players since 1970 – he averages 48 in the first innings, but a tail-ender-like 14 in the fourth.

More surprisingly though, there are two even bigger frauds among active players: Conway and Marnus – Conway averages 65 in the first inning, but just 16 in the fourth, while Marnus manages 64 and 17 respectively. Steve Smith is another notable bat-last fraud, averaging 74 first up vs just 25 last up.

On the flipside, Sri Lanka apparently specialise in middling batters who clutch it out in tough chases: alongside notable vs-England merchant Jermaine Blackwood (17 first innings, 33 fourth), the top 3 biggest fourth innings risers are Kusal Mendis (31 vs 45), Kaushal Silva (22 vs 36) and Ranatunga (28 vs 37).